Going into the Fed, the honest read is that the short term does not look good. The long view is still bullish and that is the one thing the bulls have going for them right now, though it does not help me this week. Bears have control of everything shorter, and it is all playing out under daily levels I care about. I am not short. I am also not buying this.
Energy is the only place on the buy side I would put money right now. $XLE is running at 98% of its best ranking while big tech sits at 8 and semiconductors sit at negative 42. The entire board is at negative 8% of its best, and that is a long way from the April and May tape where we were printing 70 and 80 almost every day.
I opened an October at the money call on $XOM in the room today. A squeeze fired long, there are more stacked behind it, the peer group is strong across $CVX, $COP, $MPC and $EOG, and the bigger charts are in far better shape than anything in tech. A close below the 21 EMA or the 50 SMA and I am out for a loss. I walk through the two risks that would break this trade, plus where $ARKK and $NVDA stand for December.
Full breakdown is in tonight’s video.
Stay Focused,
Taylor Horton
John Carter goes live tomorrow night with SPX Advantage, and it is the last session of this run. He is showing how he reads the market data and turns it into actual trade ideas. Register for free here.