It’s a busy week my friends. Earnings and the Fed land this week. Meanwhile, QQQ and chip names like Nvidia and Micron are bouncing off the low. I still want to be careful with QQQ here, because it sits under a falling 21 EMA with a negative MACD line. Something else stood out to me this week, and it is worth a closer look. Let’s take a deeper look at the QQQ Scorecard rankings:
The full chart walkthrough is in the video below.
The 21 EMA Is the Over/Under Level Into the Fed
Back in mid-September, QQQ had the structure you want: the 21 EMA above the 50, both trending higher, and a bullish MACD line. That kind of tape lets you buy the pullback to the 21, watch it hold, and ride the next push higher.
That is not what we have now. Price is under a falling 21 EMA and the MACD line is negative. That opens the door to a flush, a rally back toward the 21, and a rejection back down. The Fed could drive that move, and so could earnings.
Either way, I think the 21 EMA is a pretty big over/under level toward the end of the week. It is the same backdrop I covered last week when I explained why I am long Apple, the strongest name on the board.
The Big 3 Squeeze Checklist Is Not Bad, Just Not Ready
On the Big 3 Squeeze update, the picture is not perfect and not bad. Structure and trend are still good, and QQQ scores 12 out of 15 points on the checklist.
The problem is the negative MACD turn. There is no shorter-term buy trigger behind it yet, and that trigger would be the beginning of the path back to a buy signal. If QQQ can hold the 21 EMA, things should get a little more stable from here.
Where the QQQ Scorecard Rankings Stand Now
Right now the market reads neutral, and QQQ sits at a whopping 17% of its strongest score. Call it neutral with a very minor hint of bullish.
I pulled up a chart of the QQQ Scorecard rankings going back to May. Each daily reading comes from the Big 3 Scorecard, a 15-point checklist across eight different timeframes. A reading of 100% is the most bullish case, and negative 100% is the most bearish.
If you watch my videos or sit in my room, you hear me bring up the April and May market a lot. Better direction, more clarity, frankly an easier market. In May, QQQ averaged 85% of its strongest score. With that kind of QQQ behind you, the breakout, the pullback, the day trade and the swing trade all get easier.
Why Negative QQQ Scorecard Rankings Have Marked Bottoms
Here is the observation. Going back to May, the QQQ Scorecard rankings have shifted negative only three times, and we are in the third one now. The weakest reading came near the end of July at negative 37%.
That late July shift is the moment everything got a little more bearish, and on the QQQ chart it marked the bottom. A big move up into August followed.
September played out the same way. QQQ had a flush, a little break below a key level, and a breakdown attempt. Then it turned the corner. The rankings went back to the buy side, 55%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and got as high as 98% of the strongest score in September.
So far, a negative ranking has not led to a bigger breakdown. It has been more of the opposite: rankings go negative, everybody calls for the end of QQQ, and back up she goes. To be clear, the Fed and earnings can change everything this week. This is an observation, a conversation amongst friends, not a forecast.
What the QQQ Scorecard Rankings Need to Turn Positive
The rankings are trying to turn back to positive, and the price action is where I check that. Into the Fed, I want QQQ to hold above its short-term 21 EMA. It is trying to rebuild momentum to the buy side and pull that 21 back up.
In most cases, if QQQ keeps the MACD line above zero and pulls the 21 EMA back above the 50, it has better momentum and better structure to work with. A couple of folks got short on the breakdown, and at a minimum I think we could get back up toward $730, maybe $735, by the end of the week.
TXN Has the Squeeze, and the Trigger Still Matters
I do not have too many new ideas this week, and I will have more for you at the end of the week. One name I would put on your watchlist is TXN.
It has a beautiful squeeze. I am a little late to that party, so what I want now is for the MACD to finally get back above the zero line and stay there. That would give us a buy trigger, and that could be good for a move back to at least the previous highs. I am also still watching Micron. We are way too early to buy that one, and I will keep updating you on it.
Daily Chart, $TXN 10.27.2026
TSLA Could Be Setting Up the Henry Gambell Special
Tesla had a killer week, pushing through $400 into $405. With Tesla being Tesla, the next target could be the big $420.
What I would look for is what I call the Henry Gambell special. Find the end-of-day squeeze, then use that compression to buy an out-of-the-money call, an out-of-the-money call butterfly or a call debit spread, keeping your size in check. Ideally, like you had today, they gap it up the next session and the squeeze fires in your favor right out of the gate.
I will update you at the end of the week. Until QQQ holds above its 21 EMA, I am staying patient.
Stay Focused,
Taylor Horton
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