Let’s review the recent trades closed in the Compounding Growth Mastery and define how to keep an account profitable.
Since launching the Big 3 indicator in July, the Mastery account is up 20% with a 5% risk per trade. The key is having a simple checklist and staying disciplined to trade nothing but setups that fit our rules.
We’ll review the setup we’ve been trading consistently to achieve these wins on names like TSLA, XOM, and FCX. We’ll also take a look at the differences between our winning trades and our losses.
Our main goal is to have a strong win rate while keeping our losses smaller than our winners.
As you’re prepping this weekend, focus on nothing but your go-to setup, both bullish and bearish.
We have an important catalyst ahead of us with Federal Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at the Jackson Hole event on Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern.
The S&P 500 (/ES) broke its structure below, hit its Point of Control (POC) level at $4,136, chopped, and turned around.
We want to pay attention to the downside structure around $4,200 that /ES bounced toward. If /ES fails at $4,212 we want to look for a potential rollback to the daily 21 Exponential moving average at $4,156.
If it can’t hold $4,156 my next target is POC below $4,136. If /ES breaks through $4,212, my first target is $4,237. The next target is at $4,273.
The Nasdaq (/NQ) could potentially lead the way on Friday. /NQ ended the Thursday session at top of the zone at $13,150. If it can break $13,150, my first target is POC at $13,271. My second target is at $13,356.
If /NQ breaks down below its daily 21 EMA at $13,066, see if it can hold its downside structure at $13,025. If it doesn’t, it could go lower toward its low of the week at $12,915.
NVDA is still my top setup after they reported a miss in earnings earlier this week. NVDA is sitting at $178, its daily 21 EMA. NVDA could potentially break down toward my first target at $174 and my second target at $170, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
GOOGL is next on my focused list, also sitting at its daily 21 EMA at $116. Let’s see if it can rip through $116 and head toward my next target at $119 (POC).
I’ll be live in the Simpler Day Trading room next week. Tune in to trade even more of my setups and look for more potential opportunities in the market.
The S&P 500 (/ES) ended last Friday by fading off the 200-day simple and significant downside structure. This week’s market events consist of NVDA earnings on Wednesday, and the TSLA 3 to 1 stock split on Thursday.
As we head into this week we’re looking for a pullback. If /ES continues lower, we will target our downside structure at $4,165, the 21-daily exponential moving average (EMA). If /ES can stay above $4,212 my next target is our upside structure at $4,247.
Anticipating the market pulling back, also look for some names on our focused list to pull back as well.
AMZN – My top set up for the week, after breaking downside structure, and ending Friday at $137, my next target is $135, the daily 21 EMA. If it can hold $135 it could pop back toward $139 and fail. If it breaks $135, it could reach its gap down at $132.
NVDA – Coming into earnings week, NVDA ended Friday’s session hitting downside structure at $177. If it breaks structure, my first target is $174. My next target is $169, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). It could hit $164, completing the big picture double-top.
Trade my top setup in AMZN and get access to even more of my setups live with me in the Simpler Day Trading room this week.
We’re finally starting to see signs of exhaustion in the market over the last few days. The market has made a big push with uninterrupted upside momentum for the last 4 weeks.
Now that names are trading at 2+ average true ranges (ATR) with Big 3 buy signals turning neutral, the probabilities suggest a flush to the 21 exponential moving average (EMA).
If the S&P 500 finds support after a flush to its 21 EMA, we’ll look for Big 3 buy signals. Seeing Big 3 buy signals on the lower timeframes like the 1-hour, 30-min, and 15-min charts could trigger the next leg to the upside.
If we continue to flush past the 21 EMA, we’ll have to ignore the idea of looking for bullish trades.
If we can hold support and see the “pretty green colors” on the Big 3 indicator, we’ll look for bullish trades for a push toward these recent highs.
In the video above, we’ll review our watchlist including our number one name on our “buy the dip” watchlist. The AAPL monthly chart is bullish so we could see a push toward new all-time highs. It also has a monthly squeeze with bullish trend, structure, and momentum.
We’ll review names like TSLA, AMZN, XLE, and SMH that would have great buying opportunities on a dip and review our recent trades taken in the Compounding Growth Mastery.
We’ve seen a strong market over the last few weeks, which has made for some good trades in the Compounding Growth Mastery. The market is now trading at 2+ average true ranges (ATR) above the daily mean. We are seeing signs of exhaustion, meaning that we are no longer seeing buy signals on the Big 3 indicator.
These lower timeframe buy signals can trigger a push to the 21 exponential moving average (EMA). When the Big 3 indicator transitions from bullish to neutral on the 30-min, 2-hr, and other lower timeframes, there is a growing probability that names will drop back to the 21 EMA.
Both the Nasdaq (QQQ) and S&P 500 (SPX) are down slightly on Friday, showing signs of exhaustion, and appear ready for a push back to the 21 EMA.
The market hasn’t traded at the daily 21 EMA in about a month. Now that the buy signals have gone away, it’s a sign that the bulls are running out of gas.
The big question now is if we see names in the financial and technology sectors finally pull back to the 21 EMA.
In the video above, we’ll review what we’re looking for in the event we see a pullback to the 21 EMA.
With Options Expiration (OPEX) on Friday, the S&P 500 (/ES) is nearing major downside structure.
For the next few sessions, watch the daily structure of the market. If /ES tops out at its daily trendline, it could pull back and reset. Or /ES could break through the trendline and accelerate towards $4,500.
OPEX is approaching on Friday which can cause major chop and consolidation. In these times, we want to pay attention to the key levels that /ES will chop at. Point of Control (POC) is sitting at $4,272, and /ES has another key level above at $4,320, the 200-day simple.
If /ES breaks its high of the day from Thursday at $4,292, it could break through $4303 and head towards $4,272. However, if it rolls off $4,292 and breaks $4,272 my downside target is $4,260.
Top on my focus list is AMZN, which has been struggling at its 200-day simple at $145. Look to short AMZN if it struggles at $142 towards downside structure at $140.
I’ll be live in the Simpler Day Trading room this week. Tune in to trade this and other potential setups with me live and navigate the market during OPEX.
There are three big names that we’re looking to take entries on as soon as all of our big 3 criteria is met and we’re trading back at the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA).
The number one name we’re looking to buy on a dip is AAPL. AAPL hasn’t had a daliy buy signal since February, and now it is printing bullish, stacked Big 3 buy signals on the daily chart. It is extended, therefore we will be waiting to take an entry until we see a flush.
Our ideal entry is around $160 near the daily 21 EMA and daily 200 simple moving average (SMA). As far as trend, structure, and momentum goes, the monthly, weekly, daily, 4-hour, and down to the 5-minute charts have improved.
The market is currently overbought. The major things we want to look for are signs of exhaustion.
Once the market hits 2+ average true range (ATR) moves above the daily 21 exponential moving average, it could still push toward 3+, 4+, or 5+ ATR. The major signs of exhaustion are when the lower timeframes begin to switch from bullish to neutral.
At this point, the S&P 500 (/ES) is trading above the daily 21 EMA. We want to focus on the structure below the surface. We know the market is extended, but how far will it go?
The S&P 500 (/ES) has a 2-hour squeeze with Big 3 buy signals. Trend, structure, and momentum on the 2-hour, 1-hour, and 30-min time frames show that the path of least resistance is still to the upside.
We’d love to see a flush, potentially to $4,150, to get better entries for swing trades. For now we’re looking to see how far the market can go. We could see a push toward the 200 simple moving average (SMA) and make a run to $4,300.
The market is extended, but it’s not showing signs of slowing down just yet.
After consolidating into Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, the S&P 500 (/ES) broke out to higher levels. Let’s see if it can hold.
Market Overview
If /ES does hold $4,212, it could work its way back up to $4,260. The next target will be the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,329. If /ES fails at $4,212, it may pull back to either $4,189 or Point of Control (POC) at $4,136.
Exploding into CPI news on Wednesday, the Nasdaq-100 futures (/NQ) dropped to its Point of Control (POC) at $13,271. If /NQ continues to pop on Friday toward $13,356, it could fall, break $13,271, and possibly drop to $13,150.
Continue to pay attention to the relationship between the Volatility Index (VIX) and /ES for a potential pullback as VIX holds $20.
Potential Setups
Many setups have unfolded, one of them being COIN. After its rally on earnings Wednesday, it dropped back to $85. See if it can find its feet, pop toward $88, and fail down toward $79.
SHOP finally broke through its zone above $42, and then dropped back under the zone to $39. If it breaks $40, our next target is our prior CPI top of the zone at $38.
I’ll be live in the Simpler Day Trading room this week. Tune in to trade these setups with me live and look for more potential opportunities in the market.
Another week of earnings is ahead of us. Notable earnings this week are Coinbase (COIN), Roblox (RBLX), and Trade Desk (TTD), which report on Tuesday.
Economic Events: CPI, PPI, Jobless Claims
As far as economic news, the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be reported on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Jobless Claims on Thursday morning.
News:
Last week, Tesla’s 3-to-1 stock split was approved and is going to effect on August 25th. Keep an eye out for potential opportunities as we head closer to that date.
COIN had news last Thursday of its partnership with Black Rock. This caused a good move in the stock, so pay attention to Tuesday’s earnings report.
Market Overview
Last week the S&P 500 (/ES) sat at $4,100 and hit a low of $4,081. On Monday, /ES rallied back to $4,153. Nvidia (NVDA) reported a large miss in earnings, missing the mark by $2 billion and causing /ES to drop below $4,153.
If the /ES starts to break down, our first target is $4,100 and then $4,081.
If /ES continues to fail, it could revert to the mean and bring /ES to $4,032. If /ES gets back through $4,188, our next target is $4,212. Let’s see if the /ES holds structure and finds its feet.
Keep an eye on the structure of Nasdaq-100 futures (/NQ). With NVDA news, /NQ has worked its way back to $13,150. Our next key level is around $13,025.
If /NQ finds its feet, it could head back toward its Point of Control (POC) at $13,271.
Focused List
Here is our focused list:
NVDA— With negative news, we have our eye out for NVDA and its structure to the downside at $160. Into CPI, if NVDA stays under $174, our next target is $170. Our second target is at $160.
SHOP — We want to take advantage of SHOP as it continues to feel selling pressure around $40. If SHOP can pop to structure at $40.68, we’ll look to short the pullback to $37 and potentially $35.
I’ll be live in the Simpler Day Trading room this week to cover the market open. Tune in to trade these setups with me live and look for more potential opportunities in the market.
