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The market is continuing its march higher and isn’t showing signs of slowing down.

Technology is the strongest sector leading the market, driving the bulls higher. With the bulls in control, the market is reaching a point of being extended. 

The S&P 500 (ES) is hitting 3+ average true range (ATR) from the daily mean for the second time this year, the first being in April. 

While we want to use our technicals to help capture the probability of moves, we should not rely solely on the theoretical. Although extended, the market could keep grinding higher and there isn’t any promise for a pullback.

Remember our “if this, then that” rule? Rather than having a strong bias, listen and react to triggers in the market to determine its next move. 

If the ES breaks $4,650 we could use this as a trigger to see it drop to $4,627 and potentially down to point of control (POC) at $4,620. Vice versa, if the ES breaches $4,674, it could run to the psychological level of $4,700.

Watch the video above for more trigger points and key setups like ABNB, QCOM, and GOOGL that we’ll be watching in the market.

Stay Focused!

We have an eventful week to start November with earnings releases and economic events that could lead to potential spikes in volatility. 

After big technology earnings last week, we’ll be shifting our focus to earnings from ROKU on Wednesday after the close, MRNA at the open on Thursday, and more names like SQ, ABNB, and COIN at the end of the week.

Practice patience around earnings and focus on playing the premium crush and market reaction after earnings are released.

Regarding the economic calendar, keep an eye on the ADP employment report on Wednesday and the FOMC statement followed by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at 2:30 p.m. Eastern that same day. Another potential market-moving catalyst is the nonfarm payroll report on Friday.

These economic events are often strong chances for volatility.

Here is our focused list:

UPST — Last week a wedge began setting up with a 2-hour squeeze. UPST pushed to the key level at $346.54 and closed underneath it on Monday. We are looking for a continued zone-to-zone. Let’s see if the wedge and squeeze will continue to fire and UPST pushes to the $357 to $363 area at point of control (POC). 

SHOP — After a strong breakout last week SHOP continued to rally on Monday. Now we are approaching tougher territory, where it could reach $1,600 but it might be a hard journey to get there. Watch to see if SHOP can hold $1,506, break $1,540, and then reach $1,588. 

NVDA — After a strong run to all-time highs, we’re looking to short NVDA. It finished near its all-time high at $259 on Monday. We would love to short at this high down to last month’s POC at $247. Use the 3-minute Ichimoku Cloud as an additional guide to indicate if NVDA will drop lower. 

I look forward to seeing those of you who signed up for the Max-Out Your Trade strategy class with pro and elite live-trading sessions the next two weeks. If you want to follow this strategy in real-time with me, register for the class here. 

Stay Focused!

Despite earnings misses from both AMZN and AAPL, two of the most important stocks in the market, nothing could stop the Nasdaq (QQQ) this week. The big question at this point is what will it take for this trend to end or at the very least pullback to the 21 exponential moving average (EMA). 

The combination of exhaustion of bullish momentum and sell signals can bring a roaring market to a screeching halt, and there are neither of those to be found on the indexes right now. While we are certainly due for a pullback, we are not looking to fight this trend and instead are looking for opportunities to catch continuation of this momentum.

One of our favorite trends here is GOOGL, which quickly rallied to a new all-time high (ATH) after earnings. Into today’s close, we built a long position in the 30-minute squeeze, and we’re looking for a move into $3000+ next week. The structure of the 30-minute squeeze fit all of the same criteria that we look for in a daily squeeze – with positively-stacked EMA’s, green 10x bars, and a positive histogram. 

The key with this market has been to look for these ‘moments in time’ but on lower time frames. While waiting for a retracement to the 21 EMA is a good game plan in a normal market, we are not in a normal market here. 

Until the party ends, we’ll be looking to pick our spots wisely in leaders like GOOGL in an attempt to catch the continuation of this crazy momentum. 

The squeeze is a versatile setup. You just have to know where to look! With that being said, be sure to join us for premarket prep Monday morning at 7:45am Central on the Focused Trades YouTube Channel, as we’ll be running scans for lower time frame squeezes together. 

Until then, enjoy your weekend and we look forward to getting back to work on Monday!

Stay Focused!

The market has presented some great opportunities with the earnings season still far from over. The S&P 500 (ES) is trading below Tuesday’s all-time high at $4,590 as the bulls continue their strong bounce back. 

While the market is extended, this doesn’t necessarily mean it will trade lower. As long as the ES holds $4,549, we expect the market to remain bullish. 

The ES is printing a tight 4-hour squeeze ahead of big tech earnings with AAPL and AMZN reporting. If the squeeze fires and the ES breaks all-time highs, we’ll anticipate a push toward $4,360. If not, expect a drop to $4,549 and down to Point of Control (POC) at $4,528. 

Avoid having a strong bias in one direction or another, and instead, watch and react to the market. 

Watch the video above to see which key levels and earnings reports we’re watching ahead of next week’s economic events. View how we use the Volatility Index (VIX) as a compass and approach potential setup opportunities like on SHOP, NVDA, and FB.

I’ll see those of you signed up for my Max-Out Your Trade strategy class this Saturday, October 30th. If you’re interested in signing up and getting access to the class recording, sign up here: https://bit.ly/3vR5O3o 

Stay Focused!

We’re anticipating a large week of earnings for big technology names including Microsoft, Alphabet, and Apple through Thursday. After a flush the last few weeks, the S&P 500 (ES) exploded on Monday toward all-time highs at $4,564, locking in gains for the bulls. 

While the market is technically “extended” this doesn’t mean the market is guaranteed a pullback. As long as earnings reports are strong and the ES maintains highs above $4,551, look for a potential push to the psychological level of $4,600 at 3+ average true range (ATR). This $4,600 level could also be a good spot for a potential pullback. 

If earnings report negatively and the ES trades lower, look for a pullback to $4,526 around Point of Control (POC). 

Follow the market, watch the earnings reactions, and avoid having a strict bias toward one direction or another.

Here is our focused list:

FB — After lower-than-expected earnings were released, the news of the boost in share buyback authorization sent FB higher. FB has been dipping to the weekly and daily Ichimoku Cloud, which could always present a dip buy opportunity. If FB accelerates higher this week and hits $345, look for it to move to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at the $350 levels.  

ROKU — While Snapchat earnings sent ROKU lower last week, ROKU created a gap fill between the daily 21 exponential moving average (EMA) at $328 and the 50 SMA at $333. ROKU is printing a 1-hour squeeze and closed at highs on Monday around POC at $324. If it gains momentum, look for ROKU to break through the daily mean and fill the gap to the 50 SMA.

TSLA — TSLA flew higher on Monday, breaking all-time highs past the $1,000 threshold to $1,045. With TSLA extended, it could keep exploding but there is also a big gap to fill on the downside. As long as it holds above $1,000, we’re leaning toward the bullish upside. 

MRNA — MRNA started to explode to our zones on Monday past $344 to $349 and looks like it will keep grinding higher. With upcoming news this week, let’s position ourselves to see if MRNA can push through $350, fill the gap at $359, and move to $377. If MRNA pulls back and holds $345, look for a dip buy.

Stay Focused!

The Volatility Index (VIX) is losing support with a Ready Aim Fire!® (RAF) buy signal suggesting a potential bounce. In the past we’ve seen when the Volatility Index bounces, it tends to send the market to the downside. 

With the VIX losing steam, the market may unfold the same way it did last October and roll over to retest the lows.

Will history repeat itself? Maybe, but we need to be ready for the market’s next move.

After seven days of uptrend with low volume, the market is extended and trading at previous all-time highs (ATH). As the S&P 500 (ES) approaches a level of resistance at its ATH of $4,551.50, we’re looking for a dip to the 21 exponential moving average (EMA). 

Rather than focusing on which move is next, look for signals and shifts of momentum that can support your position. Remember the current market conditions we’re in:

• Market is extended
• S&P 500 is at previous all-time highs trading at 2+ average true range (ATR)
• Volume is low on the push higher
• The VIX is at major support trying to print a buy signal 

In today’s video we’ll review last year’s moves in October and determine where to position ourselves, and whether we see a big flush or spike next.

Stay Focused!

Traders tend to get complacent in a low volatility environment. The big question is, how low is low?

The Volatility index (VIX) is resting at a major level of support while at the same time printing a Ready, Aim, Fire!® (RAF) buy signal. Is a potential flush in the market around the corner? Maybe, and it could be a potential heads-up.

Sudden, aggressive flushes to the downside in the markets are typically met with or triggered by an explosive move out of the VIX. If you look at recent flushes in the markets in both August and September the VIX was roaring higher.

With this current RAF buy signal setting up we are left wondering if this October will be a repeat of last year — a big flush followed by a spike back to highs followed by another aggressive flush lower. While there’s no guarantee, the signal on the VIX at least suggests this is a good spot to trim profits on longs, especially as the indexes are extended.

A rise in volatility will also favor certain options strategies more than others. For example, long options tend to suffer in low volatility markets and tend to explode in value when the VIX spikes. When you take this all into consideration, long puts on the indexes would offer tremendous potential for big returns if that buy signal in the VIX turns into something more than a signal.

During our Focused Trades Premarket Prep session on Monday morning this is the first place we’ll take a look at as we begin to put together our next round of potential trades. Until then we advise being cautious on the upside here.

Stay Focused!

The market broke through the downside trend last week and is approaching all-time highs, just one step closer to the bulls taking back control. With the market moving so much heading toward the end of the week, the question is if the market is exhausted here. 

Remember that many times when the market breaks all-time highs it grinds higher, blasts through recent all-time highs, and continues to run higher for weeks. If the S&P 500 (ES) breaks the $4,549.5 current all-time high, we’ll see if the market can push higher to the psychological level at $4,600. 

On the other hand the market may continue to chop here, so let’s see what happens. 

Be patient and smart with these big moves, but let’s see if the bulls can push this market to new all-time highs.

Stay Focused!

The overall market is returning to big levels, shaking off the recent bearish pressure. This week we have earnings reports that could present profitable trades based on the news released. Some big names we’re keeping an eye on are Netflix set to report after the bell on Tuesday, ASML before the open on Wednesday, and TSLA after the close on Wednesday, along with some other names. 

To continue our conversation from last time, the market was and still is at a pivotal level as volatility remains high. The S&P 500 (ES) formed a downside trendline that was met by an upside trendline last week. It finally broke through the 50 simple moving average (SMA) at $4,431 and pushed toward the inflection zone near $4,475. 

This marks step two of the bulls’ run toward all-time highs. If the ES can clear the $4,500 range, look for a push to new all-time highs.

This is also a level where we could see the market fail again, so be wary. 

Here is our focused list:

GOOGL — Continues to be the strongest technology stock. It dipped to the daily Ichimoku Cloud for an awesome dip buy last week and is starting to fire a daily squeeze. Watch the 1-hour squeeze that is beginning to fire to see if GOOGL can carry its momentum for technology higher. If GOOGL can hold $2,846, look for a push to $2,870 toward $2,900. 

ROKU — Exploded on Monday and broke through the downside trending wedge. Closed above the 50 SMA at $337 on Monday and is starting to fire a daily squeeze. If ROKU can clear $347, look to take it up by increments of 10 toward $350, $360, and $370. 

SQ — Had both a downside and upside gap to fill. On Monday SQ filled the downside gap and kissed the upside gap with the 2-hour squeeze stuck at the gap fill level. Focus on $251.34 and $250.70 to see if SQ can hold and fill that gap, pushing SQ back to its 50 SMA at $256 with a potential move to $260. 

AFRM — Honey badger. Opened at lows on Monday and exploded to settle at a new all-time high of $160. Ideally look for AFRM to retest the prior all-time high at $153 for a dip buy up to $170. 

Looking forward to seeing those of you signed up for the Power in Maximizing Short-Term Moves webinar on Wednesday, October 20th at 7:00pm CT.

Stay Focused!